The warm days and cool nights of fall transform homogeneous carpets of green leaves into brilliant yellows, oranges and reds in many parts of the country, thrilling local residents and providing a booming tourist industry.This year, however, the unusually hot and dry summer may put a damper on those colors in some areas, especially in the Mid-Atlantic region, southern New England and the South.
A number of factors that directly contribute to how spectacular -- or how mediocre -- a season might be, include current weather and the weather of previous months. The best type of weather during fall, when the leaves are in the process of changing, includes sunny, warm days and clear, cool nights with little wind. The worst type of weather includes little sunshine and mild nights, along with the obvious: wind and rain that will quickly strip trees of their leaves.
Even the best fall weather conditions, though, will only result in spectacular fall displays if the trees have been exposed to proper weather conditions during the preceding summer. Trees that have been stressed by outside influence, such as extreme heat or drought, will often quickly shut down in the fall, with leaves falling early after turning brown or only displaying only muted colors for a brief time.
Immature and diseased trees, as well as certain types of trees, are more susceptible to stress than others, so predicting how large stands will react to potential stress is an imperfect science.
Trees in large portions of the East and South, though, have been exposed to extreme heat and developing drought in recent months, so spectacular displays of vibrant foliage are unlikely.
This summer (June through August) was the hottest on record from the Deep South through the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region to parts of southern New England, and every state in the entire eastern half of the country recorded one of its top 16 hottest summers.
Trees exposed to extreme heat might not be overly stressed if they had enough rain to compensate, but the heat was combined with a growing drought for many areas. Drought conditions, in some instances severe or extreme, extend from southern New England through the Mid-Atlantic region and into the Deep South.
While there will be pockets of trees in these regions that are less stressed because of local effects, such as more resistant trees, locally higher rain amounts or slightly cooler temperatures, it's likely that the season overall will not be spectacular.
Locations with typical early peaks in color include the higher elevations of New York State to West Virginia, where the best color is seen in late September and early October. Leaves are typically at their most colorful in the middle of October in the rest of the Mid-Atlantic region and Appalachian mountains, with peak color not likely until late October or even early November in the South.
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