'No Drama' For Maryland Winter This Year- NOAA Says

If you hated last winter's record snowstorms in Maryland, you should be a lot happier with the winter weather predictions rolled out Thursday by government and private forecasters.

The best news is that federal forecasters see no compelling reasons to think we'll stray far from the long-term averages for precipitation and temperatures this winter. Snow totals should look more like Baltimore's 18-inch norm than last year's record 77 inches.

On the other hand, forecasters at AccuWeather.com expect an early start to the cold weather in the Mid-Atlantic states this fall. Later in the winter, said AccuWeather.com's forecasting operations director, Ken Reeves, "you're going to find yourself with … warm air pushing against cold air in the region." That means more "mixy-type storms instead of colder snowstorms."

He guessed 20 inches to 25 inches in all at Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport. But he said "the bust potential is down rather than up this time," meaning that his estimate is more likely too high than too low.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said the worst of the snow and cold this winter will fall across the northern tier of states, from the Pacific Northwest through the Great Lakes to New England.

Warmer- and drier-than-normal weather is expected across the South, with growing worries about drought conditions developing from Texas to Florida.

The forecast is driven mostly by a strengthening La Nina — a cooling of surface waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean.

That has replaced last winter's moderate El Nino, the pattern of above-average sea-surface temperatures that drove winter storms across the southern U.S. and up the East Coast, helping fuel the storms that dropped a staggering 77 inches of snow at BWI.

"In a La Nina, storms track to the west of [the Mid-Atlantic], and history has shown we often do not see a whole lot of snow," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. "If I were a betting man, I would be betting against a very snowy winter."

Last winter was 2 degrees lower than the long-term pattern because of sharply colder weather in February. A more nearly "average" winter in the Baltimore region would feel warmer by comparison.

Area consumers could receive a double benefit — milder temperatures and cheaper natural gas. Baltimore Gas and Electric Co. officials said Wednesday that lower natural gas prices this winter should alone save consumers 5 percent on the gas portion of their bills. That works out to about $30 over the five-month heating season.

If AccuWeather.com's forecast proves correct, the snow we get would come early in the season. Joe Bastardi, its chief long-range forecaster, said he expects temperatures in November and December to be near or below normal.

Reeves said that would come with an expected southward dip in the jet stream, down through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic.

"If we get that kind of flow going, it probably means access to colder air and a chance for … not Snowmageddon 3, but smaller batches of snow moving from west to east," he said.

If nor'easters do form, he said, they would tend to spin up off the Carolina coast without first sweeping up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. And until we're deep into December, the odds will favor rain over snow.

Come January, the dip in the jet stream will flatten out, Reeves said. And that will mean milder weather. And when such temperatures collide with colder air to the north, Maryland can expect "wintry mix" storms that can slicken roads and bring down power lines without delivering much snow.

If you'd rather have a snowfest this winter, stick with the 2011 Old Farmer's Almanac. Its seers, using sunspot cycles and a strengthening La Nina as their guide, forecast a "cold, snowy" winter for the Mid-Atlantic, with the flakiest times in early January and mid- and late-February.

How reliable are NOAA's Winter Outlooks? The Climate Prediction Center measures its performance with a statistical tool called the "Heidike Skill Score." Negative scores are worse than random guessing. A score of 100 percent is a perfect forecast.

"Our average skill score is somewhere around 20 to 25 percent better than random chance," said Michelle L'Heureux, an El Nino and La Nina expert at NOAA.

Last year's Winter Outlook, once it was measured against the actual weather, got a score of 15 percent to 20 percent.

"While we did better than random chance, we didn't do as well as one would have hoped," she said. And that was because of a very strong negative Arctic Oscillation, a fast-changing atmospheric factor that contributed the cold air for Maryland's heavy snows. It's "always a wild card in our seasonal outlooks."

"This year's forecast is based on the expectation of a strong La Nina pattern, so as long as we don't see extreme AO values, then we should do reasonably well," L'Heureux said.

www.baltimoresun.com

What A Treat !!

Finally the skies opened up and dumped some much needed rain on the area.

Cooler Temperatures For The Area.......So Far

A large series of thunderstorms struck the Eastern Shore last night. The storms caused winds of at least 47 mph recorded at the Chesapeake Bay Bridge-Tunnel, requiring level two wind restrictions. Motorcycles, large pick-up campers, camper trailers, house trailers, anything being towed, vehicles with exterior cargo, empty tractor-trailers, small six-wheel trucks, such as moving vans, rental trucks and school buses were not allowed to cross while the restrictions are in place.

The cold front brought cooler temperatures and less humidity to the area which has been experiencing a streak of hot temperatures and high humidity.

Throw open those windows and step outside!!!

Be Prepared For the Artic Air

The new year seems to have brought a blast of artic air into our area. With "warming" forcasted for the middle of the week and then dipping colder again please take extra precautions. (Just a couple degrees warmer)

　

Beware that ice that melts during the day on our highways and backroads will refreeze at night causing slippery conditions for the morning drivers. Please use caution and take your time.

Walking on ice can be dangerous. I know all of us know that yet people do it anyway and slip to the ground causing a broken leg, ankle or even a hip. Why tempt fate?

Remember that the areas of water in our area are NOT frozen solid! They rarely ever do. If you have children please, please keep an eye on them if they play outside. Children seem to be drawn to water and ice and this can be dangerous. It only takes a split second for a child to fall through the ice and drown. However, allowing them to tap on the ice is your yard or driveway is good for them. I suggest you allow them this experience as long as you keep them away from the deeper area of water.

If you use portable heaters always allow 3 feet from combustable materials. Never leave them in the same room with a child or leave the heaters without someone to monitor them. You know this yet every year children are burned and so are houses.

If you have livestock or animals that must live outside please be sure they have fresh unfrozen water at all times. Make sure they have warm bedding. I have found that straw works best. Do NOT assume your animal will be alright! He might not. And if you carry that attitude about your pet(s) perhaps you'd prefer to sleep outside with them.

Check on your neighbors especially if they live alone. You know why. Be sure they have food and above all else be sure they have heat. Only takes a minute. And it might brighten their day.

By now you should have done the necessary winter maintenance on your vehicles. Wipers antifreeze, battery, just to name a few, should have been tended to earlier. If you haven't done it then be sure you do.

Dress warm. Wear layered clothes. A cap on your head keeps the heat in your body.

If you have pipes in your home that tend to freeze leave the faucet running in a trickle.

Be sure your chimney is clean.

At least try to keep thermostats turned back a little. After all it is winter and yes, you may have to put on extra clothes in the house. And keep something on your feet!

　

These are just common sense things. These are things that will only take a few minutes of your time. Better to be safe than sorry.

Remember..........Cold artic air is forcasted to be around through next week so it doesn't look like we'll be thawing out and warming up anytime soon.

Stay warm.

Winter Weather

This afternoon my husband suggested we come out of hibernation and take a short ride, get some fresh air.

The twenty-two ounce Yankee Candle titled Beach Vacation that I had gotten from my "Secret Santa" just wasn't reminding me of the hot summer days anymore, so I agreed.

For those of us that think these past few days have been cold here is a look at how cold it can be on the water. Taken just around 2:30 this afternoon one can only imagine what these places will look like in the morning. Only in the distance could you see any white caps.

The Hammocks.........

Holden's Creek.....

Marsh Market Road....

And here's a reminder: If any of our readers have pets that must stay outside PLEASE, PLEASE be sure they have something to wrap themselves into. Straw works best. Even though they have fur they still become cold. Imagine yourself sleeping outside tonight!